Whilst I stand to be ridiculed by dare discussing an
eventuality, that a lot of hangers-on to the aged Zimbabwean leader,
wish would never become a reality, all the same, some things still need
to be said.
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| Commander in Sleep: President Robert Mugabe |
The post-Mugabe era is like a time bomb that Mugabe himself has been
all this while strapping round himself like a suicide bomber on a
mission to punish people for a reason he himself is not sure of its
justification.
The point according to the topic of this discussion however is that
God has always proved that all men are mortals and no matter how many
doctors they employ in their rank and file, he created the human body
with such precision that as you get around certain figures in age, it
will be stupid for you and the people around to find it taboo to discuss
your imminent demise.
The president of the Republic of Zimbabwe is behaving like a reckless
father who creates a great deal of discord and mistrust in his
household but still vows on intending to die without writing a will. How
stupid and selfish!
It is not a secret that politics in Zimbabwe now revolves around the
succession issue in ZANU PF to the extent that it may not be deemed far
fetched to suggest that even the destabilization in the main opposition
party MDC-T is a result of the fateful process.
I even dare push my argument further on the basis of allegations that
the succession debacle in the MDC-T is to a certain extent controlled
by one faction in the former liberation party as they wish to remain
with an opposition that will be more willing to be swallowed.
In essence we are talking of an opposition that will be corruptible
such that it may be willing to turn a blind eye and become more willing
to start on a fresh page and ignore the current looting and corruption
that has gained the country such notoriety.
As a country we need to be very afraid since the factions in ZANU PF
and MDC T are fertile breeding grounds for a violent scramble for power
in the event of a sudden exit of Zim 1 through God’s will as my
discussion suggests.
What makes the impending eventuality (the demise of Zim 1) even more
frightening is the long shadow of the secret services and the military
in the proxy wars in both parties leaving those of us privileged with
sharp eyes, to see where the balance of power lies.
So we ask our selves, does this mean if the factional wars are
allowed to continue until we wake up one morning to the bad news, the
country may fall in the hands of ZIM 2?
This is not a wild imagination! If Mugabe is to die, leaving his
party as divided as it is today, chaos may prevail thus making a
military takeover imminent. If we are to focus on ZANU PF and the way
the Mnangagwa and Mujuru factions are willing to destroy each other in
the literal sense in order to prop up their ‘horse’ we have to be very
afraid.
The coming ZANU PF elective congress also does not guarantee us, as a
country that the succession issue in the revolutionary party will be
solved and allow the country to move on with much certainty. If one is
to take a closer look at the proxy wars in the provinces, you then
realize how the grassroots come in the mix and how this is a recipe for
disaster!
You then cross the political divide and look at the MDC T and those
in it, who have shown intentions to cooperate with ZANU PF and take a
closer look at which faction they seem to be warming up to.
There is a faction in ZANU PF that despite having equally looted,
they have lost dear ones in such spectacular fashion thus falling into
the intersection of the two warring MDC T factions, and thus
intentionally or unintentionally covertly work with them. This is the
Mujuru faction, and the opposition appear to be more willing to have
Joyce Mujuru takeover from Mugabe and set the ground for free elections.
The above scenario becomes so complicated, not only for the simple
minded, but even to those of us who have been watching events closely
because it leaves the other ZANU PF faction (the crocodile’s) with no
option but to cooperate with ZIM2 and become the civilian face of an
imminent military dictatorship that may strip all the “gains” of
independence left.
It is not a secret that this is the faction largely credited with the
electoral victory that left some ZANU PF candidates more alarmed than
happy with their own victory.
The whole population is now taking a serious interest in the
succession battle in ZANU PF, and in the process temporarily ignoring
their respective political inclination. This is a result of a
realization that solving the succession issue in ZANU PF, especially
with a Mujuru victory amounts to a complete different kind of politics
in the post –Mugabe era whilst a Mnangagwa win would condemn the country
to a kind of life they have not even experienced yet.
It is also important to keep in mind that the mining industry has
been personalized by more people in the faction that cooperates with the
military and my prayer is that, these minerals may not become a cause
for a violent conflict, with the masses being pushed to the edge and
left with no option but demand survival violently in a do or die
fashion.
My fear is justified by the fact that Mujuru has a large grassroots
support base comparable to that enjoyed by Morgan Tsvangirai and his
MDC, therefore if Mnangagwa is to come to power courtesy of a Zim2
propping, a combined Tsvangirai and Mujuru grassroots support base may
consider a confrontation with the new oppressor.
I belong to a school of thought that subscribes to non-violent
conflict and Morgan Tsvangirai and his party have always earned my
sympathy because of their triumph in overcoming temptation to pick the
gun especially when their support was at its peak like in the early
2000′s.
I also subscribe to the notion of tolerance and unity that have
always been preached by Solomon Mujuru and his wife. I remember at one
rally Solomon Mujuru urged ZANU PF supporters to desist from saying
‘Pasi na Tsvangirai (Down with Tsvangirai), because according to him
there was no reason to wish him dead.
I however become very afraid each time I imagine a Mnangagwa
presidency and an imminent resistance that the population of Zimbabwe
may put against it. Most times people are even tempted to exonerate
Mugabe of many evil deeds but pile all of them on the crocodile and some
elements in the junta. This illustrates how soiled the crocodile and
his team is in ordinary Zimbabweans’ eyes!
It is not a secret that the crocodile is not blessed with much
grassroots support, but has an overwhelming support from the junta,
which would make his presidency even more illegitimate. As a people we
now know that an illegitimate presidency always repels investors and has
less genuine friendships in the family of nations.
Whilst I remain greatly opposed to ZANU PF’s culture of corruption
and impunity, like many other Zimbabweans it remains my prayer that the
moderates in that party may win the party presidency and pave way for a
peaceful Zimbabwe in which a ZANU PF victory may be embraced by the
international community and an opposition victory also accepted at home
by the former liberators.
By Shingi Chimwaza
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