M23's decline raises hopes of DR Congo peace

These children are now playing on a tank previously used by the rebels

The imminent defeat of M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo is the result of shifting military and political dynamics that are presenting the most concrete prospects of peace in the vast, unstable central African nation for many years.

M23 rebels in the east of the country have suffered major military defeats in the past week, forcing their political leader Bertrand Bisimwa to declare a ceasefire and seek a return to peace talks in Uganda.
A defeat would send an intimidating message to at least 10 other rebel groups operating in the area, raising hopes that a lasting peace for the mineral-rich nation may be in sight after two decades of conflict.

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The M23 was largely left to its own devices - the Rwandans just wouldn't pick up their phone calls”
Jason Stearns Congo analyst
 
"M23 has only been the most active group in the east. Its defeat does not mean instant peace. It is early days," Stephanie Wolters of the South African-based Institute of Security Studies said.
To understand the tenuous hope of possibly ending DR Congo's conflict, it is important to look at how M23 rebels were recently routed from its main bases by the Congolese army, a force generally known for its indiscipline, inefficiency and corruption.

When M23 took control of Goma - the main city in the east with a population of one million - in November 2012, it embarrassed the government and put pressure on the international community to act after human rights violations emerged.

President Joseph Kabila made changes to the military hierarchy and troops fighting in the east.

Thousands seek refuge from the fighting in Ntamugenga
These refugees in Ntamugenga are among thousands displaced by fighting
In a sign that the changes might have started working, no reports of human rights violations blamed on the Congolese army have recently emerged, as has happened during previous operations.


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