Kagame pushes his luck

Paul Kagame

UNDER the steely rule of President Paul Kagame, Rwanda has pretty much had things its own way for the past 20 years.

With feisty Israel as a role model, the US as chief patron and most European countries, led by Britain, as friends and funders, Mr Kagame has allies where it matters. In charge since the end of the 1994 genocide, he has turned the tiny African state into a modern Sparta whose economic management is as widely admired as its disciplined army.

But judging by the scraps of evidence which South Africa has made available to the public, he seems to have pushed his luck this time.

The issue at stake — the latest chapter in an alleged campaign by Mr Kagame to permanently silence his exiled opponents — is so sensitive that South African officials have refused to speak on the record ever since last week’s reported raid by would-be assassins on the Johannesburg residence of Rwanda’s former army chief, Kayumba Nyamwasa.

He has survived an earlier assassination attempt, unlike another one-time Kagame loyalist, former intelligence chief Patrick Karegeya, who was found dead in Sandton in January.

South Africa kicked out three Rwandese diplomats last week and Kigali reacted, Israeli-style, by expelling six South Africans. Pretoria could impose further penalties, knowing there is broad international consent that Mr Kagame has gone too far. He was forced to back down last year in the Democratic Republic of Congo after a pro-Rwanda militia was crushed by a United Nations force bolstered by a stronger mandate and South African military muscle. That marked the end of the pretence of cordial relations with Mr Zuma.

Patently, the Kagame government is feeling the pressure from the inside as well — from stalwarts of the mainly Tutsi group who helped him to defeat the Hutu extremists responsible for the genocide.

Mr Kagame is an extraordinary man but he appears to have fallen victim to a common ailment in African presidencies — overstaying one’s welcome.

Mr Kagame has fought his way out of tougher corners than this damaging row with South Africa. But sending hitmen abroad, if that is what he did, smacks of desperation. The tawdry business may eclipse the international events on April 7 marking the 20th anniversary of the start of the genocide.

bdlive.co.za

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