Rwanda mum on defeat of M23 rebels in Congo

Congolese M23 rebels

NAIROBI — Rwanda, under intense international pressure over its alleged covert aid to M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, has maintained total silence since the group’s defeat.

The March 23 Movement (M23) announced this week it was ending its 18-month insurgency after suffering a resounding rout at the hands of the Congolese army with key backing from a special United Nations (UN) intervention brigade.

The rebels are now under pressure to sign a formal peace deal today in Uganda, to where most of its fighters have fled. Scores of wounded fighters have also fled to Rwanda. UN experts have accused Uganda and in particular Rwanda of backing the rebels, and despite angry denials, officials in Kigali have been clearly anxious over the turn of events.

On the eve of M23’s formal surrender, Rwandan Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo warned in a radio interview that Kigali’s archfoe, the Democratic Republic of Congo-based Rwandan Hutu rebels of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), were moving into positions abandoned by the M23.

"Our intelligence reports indicate that FDLR is coming close to the Rwandan border as M23 is chased out of the territory," Ms Mushikiwabo said on local radio KFM last week.

The FDLR, one of myriad rebel outfits operating in the Kivu region, is a descendant of Rwandan Hutu extremist groups that carried out the 1994 genocide, during which about 800,000 people, mostly ethnic Tutsis, were murdered.

Kigali’s minority Tutsi-led government sees them as a continuing threat to Rwanda’s security, which goes some way to explaining their alleged support for the M23 — a Tutsi-dominated outfit. Rwanda’s recent silence contrasts with its threats of retaliation made just a few weeks earlier when shells allegedly fired by the Congolese army hit its territory, raising fears that the conflict could widen.

In the 18 months of M23’s existence, Rwanda has come in for criticism from even its most loyal supporters. Foreign capitals including Washington, London, Berlin and Stockholm suspended or cut some of their bilateral support to Kigali, which they have otherwise championed for its remarkable postgenocide economic recovery.

"Rwanda overplayed its hand in the M23 gamble," said Kris Berwouts, an independent analyst on conflict and security in the Great Lakes region.

Analysts have largely attributed the M23’s humiliating defeat to intense pressure applied by the UN Security Council and particularly the U S on Rwanda. This ensured that Kigali could not afford to bail out the rebels, whose military leader Sultani Makenga is under UN and US sanctions.

Analysts also cited differences of opinion within Kigali’s power structure — centred around strongman and President Paul Kagame, who has dominated the country since his then-rebel Rwandan Patriotic Front ended the genocide in 1994.

Some figures in Kigali, analysts say, want to maintain a strategic presence in North Kivu — for both security and economic reasons — while others think it is no longer worth it.

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